Using the same logic you might think that within 100k tries you are definitely going to hit a 0.01% target at least once(because it "should" happen once in 10k tries). But this is not necessarily the case. Some gamblers lose big money relying on such wrong calculations.
Man, in fact, I absolutely agree with you ... Just recently, I decided to test the doubling strategy,
(if you can call it that) but it didn't end as I expected. I assumed that using a 47% chance, and doubling the rate in case of a loss will sooner or later pay for itself, but I could not imagine that with such a high probability I will have 10 losses in a row.