Can you please help me to fully understand your formula,
(1 - 0.52510)100 = 0.852 = 85.3%
The probability of losing a single bet with multiplier of 2 is 0.525.
The probability of losing 10 bets in a row is 0.525
10.
The probability of not losing 10 bets in a row is 1 - 0.525
10.
The probability of winning the bets 100 times without hitting 10 losses in a row is (1 - 0.525
10)
100wait, you said "set the base bet to 0.001 mBTC". Was it a typo, 0.001 mBTC?
Yes, it was typo. It should be 1 mBTC or 0.001 BTC, not 0.001 mBTC. Thank you.
I just edited
that post.
If the base bet is 0.001 mBTC, the probability of making 0.1 BTC profit with initial balance of 1 BTC would be
(1 - 0.525
20)
100000 = 0.776 = 77.6%
As calculated above, for making 10% profit with martingale strategy, multiplier of 2 and base bet of 1/1000 of total balance, the probability is 85.3%
If the base bet is decreased to 1/1,000,000 of the total balance, the probability decreases to 77.6%
People usually think that by decreasing the base bet, they can increase the probably of making a certain amount of profit.
The only advantage of martingale strategy (
as stated by TheQuin) is possibility of reducing the odds to less than minimum odds.
The formula for calculating probability of winning n times without losing m times in a row is:
Probability = (1 - L
m)
nWhere, L is the probability of losing a single bet.