A good way to get a head of future market moves is to game out important scenarios, i.e. ones which result in market moves.  I think WW2b is an important scenario.  Here's my WW2b scenario:  

Occupied Crimea votes independence from Ukraine.  
Ukraine mobilizes military in eastern Ukraine.  
Putin invades eastern Ukraine to "protect ethnic Russians".  
Ukrainian military retreats.  
NATO enters Ukraine.  
Ukraine military re-enters eastern Ukraine.  
Putin escalates in eastern Ukraine.  
Ukraine military retreats.  
NATO in force.  
NATO - Russian air conflict, Russia suffers loses.
NATO - Russian ground conflict, NATO suffers loses.  
NATO uses tactical nukes.  
Putin nukes New York.

How does this scenario affect Bitcoin?

Are there scenarios in Transdniestra or the Baltics which are more likely to escalate than the more narrowly focused conflict in Ukraine?