And also you can always argue retrospectively why it would be more risk today than it was three years ago as you have the information from today. Buying Bitcoin also depends on the time horizon you are having in mind. I would say if you buy and hold for two years you are likely to be alright, but if you need the money in half a year from now you could have a bad timing and have to sell in the middle of a crash, like many had to sell in 2018.
Analysis is always retrospective though, and every TA person knows this, which is why the good ones can laugh about their charts and not take themselves too seriously;) That's the problem with risk analysis based on a market which has only been around for 10 years (we can't really call the early years a real market!). You simply just have too little data to make any really meaningful analyses.
Oh, and I remember biting down in 2018/19/20 when forced to sell for bills coins I'd earned at far higher prices. Much pain.