Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Preparing for a capital gains tax increase (US)
by
theymos
on 20/05/2021, 11:55:46 UTC
As the economy progresses more things become free or at least widely affordable. My thinking about the future is that, if we do things right, we may as humanity reach a point in which our basic needs, even some of the advanced needs, will be covered by bot and AI workings.

We may someday... But it's a common problem for people to incorrectly act as though we live in a post-scarcity world right now, and thereby make disastrous plans. Even the Soviet Union often had this mindset, even though in hindisight we were much farther from post-scarcity in the time of the Soviet Union.

Our economy may be efficient enough nowadays that it might be able to survive giving everyone $xxxx/month, for example, though that would definitely reduce economic growth. And if this "free money" grows beyond the point where the economy can bear it, you'd see price inflation and shortages.

How can you pay capital gains taxes on something where you have not received any gains?

In the US, you don't have capital gains if the coins are just sitting around. But if you trade BTC for some other coin, or somehow trade BTC for stocks, or buy goods with BTC, then these are all taxable transactions, even if there was no fiat currency: you've earned capital gains equal to the fair market value of the non-BTC side of the trade. (This is not tax advice. Talk to a tax professional.)

A tax on unrealized gains and/or total wealth (which have been proposed in the US but aren't likely IMO) would be difficult, and would force you to sell. BTC is actually comparatively easy here, since many people have unrealized capital gains on things that they can't easily sell, like restricted shares, land, ownership in a private business, etc.

They should not be increasing the capital gains tax, taxes are already too high as it is.

If I was emperor, I'd abolish government entirely (or as close as possible)... But if I was instead required to design an income tax system which would collect a specific amount of money each year, I think that I would make the capital gains rate the same as the earned income rate. I'd also eliminate step-up-basis with the estate tax, if I couldn't eliminate the estate tax entirely. Both of these things just seem unfair to me, and they distort the market. Why should people be incentivized to sit on assets for a year? How does it make any sense for bond interest to be taxed more than stock dividends? Why should stock researchers who spend 8 hours per day picking the right stocks pay less in tax than welders? However, I would also make these three substantial tax-lowering changes:
  • Every year, you should be able to optionally report that your net worth (assets minus liabilities) was at least $X, and then you should get a credit depending on the inflation that year. For example, if the inflation rate was 2%, then you should be able to reduce your investment income (interest, dividends, and capital gains/losses) by 2% of $X. Inflation is basically a tax, and not having this credit discourages people from investing in safer investments; you need to at least beat inflation, and any gains are reduced by taxes, so you need at least ~4%/yr gain to just break even, which requires taking substantial risk.
  • If you receive any dividends from a company that pays taxes, you should get a credit for your share of those taxes. For example, if you receive a $1/share dividend from AAPL, and AAPL paid $0.05/share in taxes, then only $0.95/share of your dividend should be taxable. Otherwise you're taxed twice: once at the corporate-tax level and once at the dividend tax level. Alternatively, just get rid of the corporate tax.
  • Capital losses should carry forward with unlimited time and amount.

Correct me if I am wrong, but accepting any of the options will suspend a long-standing provision in the US tax code, according to which, according to which, the tax on income on investments should be lower than on wages.

There have been periods of time where there was no favorable tax treatment for capital gains. It's never been nearly as high as 43.4%, but that's because the top marginal tax rate was much lower at the times when all income had the same tax rate.

In addition, the Biden administration's claims that the tax code update will ultimately bring trillions of dollars into the budget ... are wrong

True, in large part because people will use strategies like those I talked about in this topic.

As Theymos pointed out, the tax increases can't be implemented retroactively. So for sales being made up to March 31, 2022 the new taxes are not applicable. If you were having plans to sell some of your coins in the next 2-3 years, then it won't be a bad idea to do it before the date that I mentioned earlier.

They legally probably can be implemented retroactively, but I don't think they will be. It will probably take effect on sales starting Jan 1, 2022.