Post
Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: How low can the next bear market go?
by
BlackHatCoiner
on 20/05/2021, 12:37:40 UTC
I don't believe that this drop means an indication of a bear market if you say so. Bitcoin did make these falls, but in this case, I think that we should only consider the halvings. It's the closest we can get to the final result of a bull market. Thus, I'd skip 2014, because there was no halving; it was just the year after the first one.

So:
2013: 13.5 => 182 = 70                       Grow x13 fall x2.6
2014: 120 =>1019 => 201                   Grow x8.5 fall x5
2017: 826 => 19499 => 3232              Grow x24 fall x6
Sep. 2020-21: 10245 =>64800 =>??    Grow x6.3 fall ??

That would be true IF this bull run was over. You can't really know for sure that the $64k are the top of it, in contrast with 2017 and 2013 that we are now ensured how they ended. So the growfall may not be x6.3, I actually believe that it'll be ~x20.

Let's take a look on the halvings' chart. We are, right now, on the red part and you can notice that similar drops happened on the previous halvings too. Judging from this chart, I can gently say that this may be your last chance to buy Bitcoin at this price.





Also, I observe that history repeats itself as I recently mentioned. Back in 2017, we had McAfee, now Elon Musk.