As compared to Atletico's opponents, Real Madrid have tough opponents before them. Valladolid has some good players actually and can give quite a competition. So yeah looks like Atletico are the ones favourites but you never know- it's Real and they can turn things too. Question is if they are lucky enough to make a comeback and on other hand Atletico loses their match.
Atletico scored a goal, now 1:1 and this gives them an advantage, because Real Madrid is still losing his match. Although at any time everything can change, I am surprised that Real loses such a responsible match.