Did it ever went down midcycle (similar position) below the prior ATH?
Nope. Therefore, unless we are witnessing something entirely new, somewhere around 25K could be a "natural" attractor because it corresponds to roughly 61.8% decline (Fib number) IF we will go below the prior one (50%, where we are right now, give or take).
Because of this, it either bounce here or at 25K (plus minus a thou or half a thou), IMHO.
Actually I do not think the first big bull fit what you say up there... did it not have a sort of 2 part run? We could certainly do that.
And to your point that it might be doing something different this time... I would be very surprised if it didn't. Well at this point it is becoming more impossible for it to really repeat itself.