Yes, a winter of 2-3 years is coming, if you don't believe this you will lose all your money, you need to understand how to play this game, holding is just a good idea if you really don't care about the invested money.
Bears are in control.
I do agree that a bear market is due.
However, I don't think that it's a great idea in any mania to even attempt to call the top. With the level of enthusiasm and FOMO in the market, this current correction that everyone is predicting to be the dead cat's bounce could be the next leg up.
But eventually, $50k is way more than what is a long term sustainable price for BTC imho, at least at this stage. Until mainstream institutions (not just Microstrategy and the like) start transacting with BTC, it's likely going to correct down to the $20k neighbourhood and rest at the support there.