Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
JayJuanGee
on 25/05/2021, 03:26:29 UTC
A dormant address is a misnomer, it doesn't mean no transactions, it means no outputs.
...
Stack sats, #HODL for at least 6 years. Make anywhere between 1.5x and 100150X returns on your investment. It's that easy, but hard to do in practice. Everything else is just noise.


I fixed the content of the above tweet for you.  I understand that there are no guarantees, yet probably we could take a bit of a risk and assert/proclaim that a guy with a minimum of a 6 year investment timeline into BTC has pretty damned decent chances of at least returning 1.5x.. at a minimum, and even in 6 years it is possible to go to 150x.... I do believe that we are better off to be making our predictions in 4 year increments and maybe accounting for the location of our current cycle we might add another year and a half onto the cycle.. so there might be one set of predictions that are for 5.5 years and another more bullish set of predictions for 9.5 years from now. 

So even the 5.5 year time frame might allow for 1.5x to 150x, but the 9.5 year time-frame would ramp up the numbers a bit to between 5x and 600x.. think about 600x?  that would be the high side and it would be $22.8 million dollar bitcoin, which surely does seem to be on the outer upper end of what could end up playing out.. and sure 5x would be bearish for that timeframe, but still seems somewhat realistic and even better than the up and down guarantees (close to guarantees) that could be reasonably made with any other investment.

To get a present value calculation the investment should include considerations of both the most bullish and the most bearish of scenarios that would then give a value a range with probably some bell curve characteristics that allow for more likely chances of landing somewhere in the middle.  In assigning a present value on either a 5.5 year timeline or a 9.5 year timeline to bitcoin, there might need to be some attempt at including the going to zero possibility and or the considerably losing value scenarios, and I am NOT completely going to negate the existence of either the going to zero scenario or the considerably losing value scenarios, but such non-appreciation of value scenarios, in the case of bitcoin are becoming less and less likely with the passage of time and really would end up contributing very small value to the overall perspective of bringing down the extensiveness of the upside scenarios rather than actually having the lower end including in a present value range that would likely stay positive with 1.5x being the low end of a 5.5 year time frame and 5x being the lower end of a 9.5 year timeframe, and I don't know where you can get such bullish numbers from any other investment.. especially since so many have dollar corruption aspects within their ongoing artificial inflation, too.

Oh so Elon spoke with "North American miners"... well, he certainly didn't speak with me so right there I already know he's full of shit.

I think that we no longer need to be skeptical of the truth of Elon having had participated in some kind of discussions with some miners in very recent times, yet for me it is very interesting that Elon pretty much was able to get his ass saved by Saylor.

https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1396915801492439044

The tweet:
>>>>
"Michael Saylor
@michael_saylor

Yesterday I was pleased to host a meeting between @elonmusk & the leading Bitcoin miners in North America.  The miners have agreed to form the Bitcoin Mining Council to promote energy usage transparency & accelerate sustainability initiatives worldwide."

<<<<<<<<<<<<


I am not 100% surprised that rich fucktwats can get their asses saved over and over again, even though sometimes narcissistic attention whore fucks like Elon will still tend to both burn bridges and ongoingly engage in outrageous attention whoring behaviors because guys like that have a kind of disease, but maybe at least some of us have seen him show his true colors with the latest opportunistic bullshit that he attempted to play in his favor and likely had it explode a wee bit in his face.