No project can become a competitor to bitcoin in long term, whatever the idea about the project but still someone is behind the project who can change at any time but its not the same with Bitcoin, the satoshi was unknown,is unknown and will be unknown so no government can catch him and put a stop for the project which replaces the current fiat system.
There is no need to try and compete with btc or any other project per say, their focus should be providing a unique alternative to btc type of project which majority will worthy enough to participate, btc is no more easy to mine, if chai can be easy it will bring more people to be part of it, competition is not always the case.
BTC is also not easy to mine but the concept is not based on luck, only on computer power that you can bring to the network.
Concerning Chia, it's pure luck for people who are farming solo, it's the main problem.
This one should be considered the difficulty of mining this coin using solo farming the chance like what you have said
is base on luck or chances is really slim.
But if there are good offer from this coin and the usablities of this project allows more people to enjoy the service then
there's a chance that it will bring something inside the market.