Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
conclusion: this time it is different. you cannot compare the bull run of 2017 one-to-one with the situation today.
reason: if you look into the chart of the pre 2017 ATH you will recognize that after the burst of a mini bubble the low after was never lower than the high of the former mini bubble. but this time the low is lower than the pre high. that leads to pure panic in the market. you can called it manipulation of the market.
reason: if you look into the chart of the pre 2017 ATH you will recognize that after the burst of a mini bubble the low after was never lower than the high of the former mini bubble. but this time the low is lower than the pre high. that leads to pure panic in the market. you can called it manipulation of the market.
Either it is manipulation OR it is that it has been much easier to speculate into shitcoins this time. People do not have to go via BTC this time to buy their favorite dog-moon coin. This also means comparisons between BTC 2017 and 2021 charts are not very meaningful. Comparing how the mcap of the entire crypto market behaved makes much more sense (unfortunately). If you look at total market cap you will see an extreme parabolic rise and consecutive higher highs with a clear blow off top (that many are arguing is missing in this bull run).
In other words, the lower lows and rather slow decline could be caused by craze just shifting to other sites, i.e. shitcoins.
Not something I personally like to see, but certainly something to consider.
your arguments are worth to consider for me. but it would mean the ATH after the 2020 halving event is just $64,895?
NEVER EVER
I did not get the concept of mini-bubbles, but yes, so far we almost never (or never?) went below the prior ATH. In later 2013 and 2014-15 never went below $32, in 2018 never went below $1163, hopefully now would not go below ~20K. That said, if we look at a progress in highs from 32 to 1163 to 19780 to now, then, logically, next stop (ATH) is projecting to be $157362. If you count from lows from 2 to 175 to 3160 to next, then it is projected to be just $15312 for the next low, which is kind of low, I admit. $15.3 low would suggest just $76.6K high (if $15.3K low corresponds to 80% decline), which is disturbingly close to $64.8K already achieved. I don't favor this, but there is a small probability that it might happen.
If we count from the ATH projection of 157362, though, then the next low would be 31472 (at 80% decline) or 23604 (at 85% decline from the top), both numbers still HIGHER than prior ATH, which would fit the pattern, so I would rather go with this: ~157K high, $24-32K low in this cycle. Some might argue that with these numbers we can all lay dormant until the next low comes in 2022-2023, unless you want to chase the 157K peak and happily convert some btc to "projects" there.
It is funny (or would we label it as strange or ironic?) how a lot of hay can be made out of wishful (fear mongering) nonsense in order to attempt to proclaim that purportedly king daddy has various price thresholds that could NOT be crossed without causing a cascading into uncharted (and presumably scary) territory result because of such pie in the sky fantastical creations of what is and what is not supposedly "unprecedented" price moves that go beyond anything ever seen previously.. yeah rrrriiiggghhhht.
Deserves a pretty damned BIG eyerolling, no?
Another day, another devastating crash.
Not ONLY devastating, but unprecedented, too. amiNOTrite?
I just want to say that this has most certainly been my fav alt shitcoin season so far.
That's a pretty ambiguous statement.
Therefore, I cannot really rail upon you (or another way of saying batman slap you) for being too favorable about shitcoins, especially if my above FTFY proposal is accepted into the mix of things.