supply should not even be in the top 10 things you look at. price is a representation of value and value is achieved only through utility which is the only thing that matters in a cryptocurrency. you have to see if that project is actually providing any utility or is it just fake to fool the newbies into buying it.

with that said, in altcoin market all bets are off. there is no rule about what coin can or should grow. we see the worst coins go to the top of the list and stay there. coins with huge supplies and massive premines. coins that are centralized, buggy, scam,...
this proves that "analyzing" an altcoin is so much more complicated than just looking at its supply. you have to see who is behind it and how much experience they have in pumping it.