My bet ist 30.000 $. If we would fall way
lower then Bitcoin has probably failed for ever.
Before making a bold statement such as this, you have to consider the facts leading to the dump in price to that level. You can't expect a scenario when there are fud all over from banning of Bitcoin related activities to punishment been given to offenders caught and still expect Bitcoin to be performing well.
Obviously in situations like that the price of bitcoin will decline just for the time been and usually it bounces back bigger. You concluding that Bitcoin has failed at the moment it was trading below your estimated value would be wrong. Top assets falls but it's the potential of them raising back is what makes them perfect investment vehicle.