It feels like the latter outcome is more likely.
Given the extent of the crypto bull market, I don't see any recourse for creditors when it comes to getting paid in full in BTC. The sheer size of their balance sheet would mean that even the biggest exchanges right now probably won't be able to handle such a large liquidation request.
The creditors cannot be repaid in full, half of the BTC is gone. But if I can get only a fraction of my BTC there, it is still a fortune in current prices.
On the flip side, the BTC runup does make paying back everyone in full in terms of fiat a lot more feasible. There will probably be a lot of back and forth still with the legal settlement process, but hopefully they do pull through this time.
That was actually a reason why it is taking so long. The BTC prices have risen few years ago and the MTGOX ceased to be bankrupt (calculated in fiat). The legal situation was then converted from bankruptcy to civil something-something and the whole process started again from the scratch.