I hadn't thought of it but I guess having a head start on the next block in larger pools can help, but Eligius is consistently pool #2 or #3. I wonder how much difference it would make over time compared to #1.
I'm not sure. Technically you can't hold the answer for long; if someone else gets it you totally lose. But if you have huge hashing it might be worth it, I don't know. Then again I am probably missing something very very basic, anyone?
In regards to luck however, no matter what pool, my hunch is that over time it balances out across the entire Bitcoin network. Sort of like Vegas. Whether you are having a bad streak, or a lucky streak, the house odds are going to be the same over time.
And that is what I am hanging my hat on right now. It's maddening, but quite true that any pool might never find a block again. Or they might find a thousand blocks in sequence. But over time everything averages out.
Even the 3%, 4%, and 70% luck I am looking at now. Everything. If not then everyone will go to one pool and that will be it for Bitcoin.
C