Has anyone wargamed a 51% attack on Bitcoin? How would it go down. What defensive measures could be taken.
*edit* Ive been trying to guestimate the block rewards in the future and what ive arrived at is difficulty will go down alot. This is not good if there is a relatively large faction in the world vying to supply the reserve asset because for the cost of less than building a power plant you could 51% attack bitcoin at that point. So if a proof of stake coin tracks BTC market cap they can just wait for a few more halvings and then attack. Or if a legacy government like China wants to assert their own CBDCs they can spend a fraction of their military budget to attack bitcoin. Not cool.
Nah, it's not as simple as that, the cost of a 51% is so huge that the incentives for doing that is so low. You need to have a lot of mining hardware, and then if some pools notice this attack, they can simply stop mining bitcoin. So your chain will not survived, maybe just a couple of minutes after the attack. But after that, you're done. So I don't think any government or nation are willing to spend their budget just to prove a point, doesn't make sense.