If I had to pick the lowest possible bottom, no matter how unlikely... I'd probably put it at $200/BTC.

Now, do I actually think it'll go that low? No, of course not. $200/BTC is a ridiculous number. Bitcoin prices have never dropped that steeply before. The worst bear market we've ever had was a 90% drop. More generally, the nadir of a bear market in BTC strongly resists crossing below the peak of the previous cycle's bull market; that would imply that $15k-$20k/BTC is a more "reasonable" floor.

But if we go beyond "reasonable" and into "possible at all"... consider the sentiment that followed the 2013 bubble. This was the first time a Bitcoin bull market made it into the local newspaper. This was the first time people were sounding the alarm in a serious way about the carbon footprint of PoW. The biggest Bitcoin exchange had just closed its doors after being "hacked" (and then revealed to have been a bucket shop). And then we had a year and a half of bear market before stabilizing at $250 - a downward trend longer than the project had ever seen before.

The argument against a $15k/BTC pricepoint is mostly based on technicals - it requires us to assume that numbers on a chart will move the way they moved before.

But the argument against a $150/BTC pricepoint is based on sentiment and fundamentals - it only fails if there's some type of news worse for Bitcoin than the news was in 2014-15, and I can't think of any news that would meet that standard without destroying the ability to transfer a bitcoin at all (in which case price would be meaningless).