You can think of dividing the bitcoin adopters to segments like this:
2009 - 100
2010 - 1,000
2011 - 10,000
2012 - 100,000
2013 - 1,000,000
2014 - 10,000,000
2015 - 100,000,000
2016 - 1,000,000,000.
It is a very rough classification but approximately correct. The top of the pyramid has quite good understanding of Bitcoin, the bottom not only doesn't have it but is quite unprepared to understand it deeply even if explained.
The press articles cater to this "2016 segment" that does not have bitcoins and will not have them this or the next year. This information is mostly factually incorrect and very shallow. Because the press articles are read by the general public, they cannot be targeted to 0.1-1% of the population. They have to be poor as shit
2009 - 100
2010 - 1,000
2011 - 10,000
2012 - 100,000
2013 - 1,000,000
2014 - 10,000,000
2015 - 100,000,000
2016 - 1,000,000,000.
It is a very rough classification but approximately correct. The top of the pyramid has quite good understanding of Bitcoin, the bottom not only doesn't have it but is quite unprepared to understand it deeply even if explained.
The press articles cater to this "2016 segment" that does not have bitcoins and will not have them this or the next year. This information is mostly factually incorrect and very shallow. Because the press articles are read by the general public, they cannot be targeted to 0.1-1% of the population. They have to be poor as shit
I am thus questioning your premise that 1 billion people can adopt Bitcoin by end of 2016:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=455141.msg5716065#msg5716065
I think that is utter fantasy. No way that will happen. Absolutely 0.
They would only move in if they are investors, because there is no currency reason for the masses to adopt Bitcoin any time soon.
Thus I conclude Bitcoin will crash in 2014 or 2015. It can't reach 100 million.