I don't claim, no one knows for sure, but I can make my own assumptions. Although, I have to tell you that if you believe in the depths of Bitcoin as a currency, you should wish that the speculators are more than the users. If these fluctuations happened and the investors were the minority, imagine how fluctuating it'd be oppositely.
I actually think that people in both groups (people who see bitcoin as a currency vs those seeing it as an investment) are growing at all times but the ratio differs based on when in the 4-year cycle we are in.
If we consider the cycle to start from the bubble burst, first year is the big drop and a long bear market, second year is accumulation and small rises, third year is bigger rises and build up of momentum, and forth year is the massive rises and the eventual bubble.
In year 1 and 4 we have more speculators due to the high volatility but in year 2 and 3 due to most stability (less profit to be made by traders) we have the least number of speculators and more "believers".