I completely agree with you . There's a lot of unknowns.
But you have to make some assumptions if there is no hard data
I believe that the wallet that belonged to satoshi will not be released (unless someone "mining" priv key).
I guess with blockchain it is possible to extract such data which is why I repeat my question, do you know if there is a site where I can find these "cold wallets" not moved for 10, 8 or 6 years for example?

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