If we subtract Satoshi’s 1 million BTC (as Plan B does in his STF2X model), should we also subtract the ~4 million BTC estimated to have been lost?
You can not know correct number, of satoshi and of others.
What you know about that is the known addresses of Satoshi. Do you think satoshi only has one bitcoin wallet? As a founder of Bitcoin, he is wisely enough to hide the wallet he stores his Bitcoin. I meant satoshi can own more than 1 million BTC.
For the others, you only see estimated number of lost BTC. You can not know how accurate the number is.
So that would make total supply around 16 million BTC.
It can be higher or smaller but the more important thing is Bitcoin will be accepted more and the world population will become bigger and bigger. Demand and supply rule will help Bitcoin be exchanged with more expensive price. Long term.