Although, I had also read that around 3 million BTC, excluding Satoshi's, have left the circulation. Make your own research and your own assumptions.
yup lost coins are pretty hazy.
i estimate ive lost 10-15% of my coins, mostly early stuff i mined from around 2011-2013 and just playing around with them with various wallets etc. these are lost as in the wallet files/private keys are gone.
so i tend to use my own examples of stupidity as an example. assume im twice as stupid as the average bitcoiner so i say 5-8% of coins, mainly from early days are toast.
SOMA at its finest here.