Re: Massive drop in Hashrate (50%) ~100 ExH/S

You either don't know what 50% means or you don't know that the total bitcoin hashrate for the past 3 months has been about 130 EHS. You also seem to be incapable of looking at the hashrate stats which shows that hashrate for the most part has been pretty much the same with normal ups and downs for the past 9 months. Even if you bothered looking at the recent hashrate in June you can see that it has gone up from about 118 EHS to 140 EHS.

According to bitinfocharts, the hashrate topped out at 171 EHs on May 14, and bottomed out at 83 EHs on June 23, a drop of about 51.4%. Also according to bitinfocharts, the current hash rate is about 87 EHs. Obviously all these figures are estimates, and there is the potential that variance influenced all or some of these figures, but it is undeniable that a very significant portion of the network hashrate has been recently taken offline.

From the looks of it, there is a good chance we will see difficult decline by the maximum 25% the next change period, although it may not be quite that much. Some of the decline may be attributed to the price declining, but I think the overwhelming majority of the decline is due to the CCP seizing mining equipment throughout China.

Given how much production of ASICs is done in China, along with the above, I think there is a non-zero chance that a single entity (the Chinese government) that is hostile to Bitcoin has or will have mining capacity that is greater than 51% of the total hashrate. It is possible that the CCP has not seized all of the mining equipment that has been taken offline, and that some of the reduction is due to mining operators turning off their machines and attempting to move them out of the country so they can continue using them.

Quote from: mikeywith on June 25, 2021, 09:47:36 PM

Quote from: pooya87 on June 10, 2021, 05:27:34 AM

On top of all that China doesn't even have 50% of the hashrate in total all around their vast country.

Not sure what's your source for this information but it's actually wrong, the fact is, China does have more than 50% of the total hashrate, in 2020 china had over 70% of the hashrate,

I believe you are referring to pools based in China, which is not the same as miners based in China. A miner with equipment in the US who is mining on a pool based in China will move to a different pool if the pool shuts down, while a miner based in China will stop mining if the Chinese government shuts down its operations. With that being said, I do think that more than 50% of the total Bitcoin mining capacity is based in China, or if not, an amount very close to 50%.

Well I look at it this way. the diff was 25.3 and on Thursday or Friday the diff will be 15.9

that is about 40% drop. not 50% and is likely to be a bit more accurate then any 1 day hashrate estimate since it is over 14 days not 1.

Yes, assuming a 25% drop later this week, the difficulty will have dropped a total of about 40% from its peak. I think a 14 day measurement is too long because equipment is consistently being brought online and potentially taken offline. So as of when difficulty peaked, there could have been enough equipment online for the difficulty to increase at the end of the next difficulty period if the equipment that was online remained constant. Also, the projected difficulty decrease at the end of the current difficulty period has gone down over time, and this tells me that additional equipment has been taken offline over time, so again, once the difficulty decreases, assuming the same amount of equipment remains online, the difficulty would drop at the end of the next difficulty period.

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 08:00:04 PM

So China simply did me in the USA and anyone else mining in the USA a favor.

If the Chinese government has control of 50% of the mining equipment that exists, it can potentially execute a 51% attack against bitcoin. Much of the production of ASICs is done in China, so the Chinese government could seize outgoing shipments of miners as they are being shipped overseas, and the Chinese government could force mining manufacturers to produce additional ASICs for the Chinese government. There is also a chip shortage worldwide, so manufacturers outside of China are going to have problems with production.

If the Chinese government does not do anything with the equipment taken offline, you would be correct that seizing equipment is good for US based miners. Bitcoin is censorship resistant, and gives people freedom to transact without government permission. These are two things the Chinese government does not like, and bitcoin makes it more difficult for the Chinese government to control its people, which is one of its goals.