If we start reading reliable news coming from miners directly that someone (be it the government or anyone else), is starting to confiscate huge numbers of mining units, we could be closer to such a scenario. But it's still an expensive attack to maintain even if they gathered the required amount of hardware.

I think the Chinese government has reached its goal. Chinese miners have been shut down, they have seen what will happen to them, and their mining operations in China are now a thing of the past. With them out of the way, the communist party can now switch their attention to the digital yuan.