Depends on who the culprit is and how much he pays for it.
If it's Binance and they pay their usual 60-100sat/b you know they will most likely fill the next block and you're left behind if it's one of those tumblers that have appeared lately with their 3sat/b then they will be at the bottom till the mempool clears. If they pay the average, then yeah, they will have them distributed one by one as they find space in each block.

We just had one of those spikes, we had an average of 60 sat/vB in the block after it but in the last hour we had 13 blocks, so the mempool is empty with the fee ~3 sat/vB in the last one. To be honest, at these fees it doesn't make much sense to spend that much time on researching unless you have a lot of dust to deal with!  What's a few extra cents, you're losing more if the price goes down by 1% while you do all that math.