Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Bitcoin bouced at exactly my triangle line setup.
It shows a very defined downward channel, tipping towards the first two weeks of august.
IIRC that's the month when the fun started in 2017?
It shows a very defined downward channel, tipping towards the first two weeks of august.
IIRC that's the month when the fun started in 2017?
So you are proclaiming "down before up"?
I know that peeps like to get caught up on various human events such as calendar months or seasons of the year, and I doubt that bitcoin gives any shits about those kinds of things, so in that regard, there are likely going to be more important factors to consider, for example whether shitcoin purgenings are happening or if they affect king daddy in one direction or another.. and sure, I am not opposed to ideas of triangles and considering if there has been enough consolidation in which a break out might seem more and more likely.. but I doubt that king daddy needs such triangles, to the extent that they can be reasonably drawn, to run their courses.
Just don't forget these words by Hal and you all will be good.
"With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."
Hal was a smart guy, but he arrived at that number through faulty economic reasoning."With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."
.Of course it seems inevitable that if bitcoin remains relevant (which most of us here strongly believe), and the us dollar is still a thing, that purely due to inflation it will reach a 10 million usd/btc price. It just won't be dollars with the purchasing price of those in 2009 when Hal made the prediction.
I was going to suggest that you explain ur lil selfie a wee bit better Spaceman_Spiff, and if you are concluding that Hal was wrong merely based on his failure to account for inflation, and you are so much smarter because you believe that inflation is a BIG factor in terms of what causes BTC prices to inflate, then you seem to be caught up in some narrow considerations.
From what I understand of Hal's projection is that he was considering various ways that value is stored, and if BTC is more efficient and effective as a storage mechanism, then that value would gravitate into bitcoin. Sure, it could take several decades for such gravitation to play out, but I doubt that he was either missing inflation or failing to consider a variety of value storage mechanisms that could be replaced by BTC..,. and for sure, does not mean that he is correct or precise (or even any kind of god) to have had been engaging in such a seemingly back of the napkin kind of value storage calculation in order to approximate a kind of meaningful BTC price projection based on then dollar values.
Of course, if the dollar inflates away its own value, then BTC will end up having to be worth way more, but we could still attempt to measure in 2010-ish terms and still come to some kind of similar number (accounting for inflation).. so it seems a bit too pretentious to be attributing too much flaw to Hal's approximate calculation merely because dollar inflation (or it's projected exponential losses in value) has become way more apparent than it may have been at the time of Hal's back of the napkin calculations in 2010-ish.