Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
This summer will be remembered for a long time.
Ok..... I will bite.
Why?
As a summer of despair before an autumn/winter of joy. A bit like 2013 probably.
Oh?
I cannot really assert that you have decent odds of being wrong - because such a scenario does not necessarily seem to be any kind of stretch - but still "memorable"? You have not really said anything that would cause this particular time to play out as particularly memorable, except to historians. Does anyone give any shits about bitcoin price dynamics in 2013 anymore or remember hardly anything about it except for us more nerdy types who are hanging on every piece of quasi-obscured evidence?
#few
Had to shrink it down because those hairs are gross...
#justsaying
#nohomo
Just don't forget these words by Hal and you all will be good.
"With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."
Hal was a smart guy, but he arrived at that number through faulty economic reasoning."With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."
Well no economics was involved.. he just did the math and it's correct.
Which is nonsense. It is not because something is being expressed in a unit, that that unit needs to expand to whatever is being measured. For example, let's say I measure the length of my furniture by comparing to the length of my thumb. Why would there then need to be as many of my thumbs as there is furniture in the world? If that sounds strange or weird, that is because it is weird and nonsensical.
Money is just an asset class on its own, which takes up a certain portion of total wealth in the world.
sauce : https://twitter.com/DrBitcoinMD?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1165004233663496197%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cryptopolitan.com%2Fhal-finney-bitcoin-price-prediction-10-m%2F
I like bullish BTC price predictions as much as the next guy, but if we just switch off our critical thinking whenever somebody says something nice about bitcoin, we are more of a religion or cult than anything else. Which is not needed imo, as the realistic scenario for bitcoin holds plenty of upside and promise.
One thing is that it took you three posts before you explained what you meant about Hal supposedly being pie in the sky in his prediction, and in the end, you have not even provided any kind of meaningful criticism in terms of Hal being pie in the sky. His back of the napkin remains pretty decent, and it is not about what people want, it is based on the fact that he gave a decent ballpark idea.. which is good and it remains a decent and applicable amount, especially in the relatively near future whether you account for inflation or not.. and sure with inflation the numbers may likely need to be changed, and surely we do not consider that all of the current world wealth is not an expanding pie.. especially around 12 years later?
Sure there are ups and downs, even in the world's creation of value.. but probably some assumptions can be made about various ways in which value has increased.. and storage of value has increased. Furthermore, the value I get from eating an ice cream cone is not really a storage of value, so I doubt that we are talking about things like that. The value that I get from owning a home and a piece of land may well be the land, and if homes/land is no longer used so much as a storage of value then some of the more efficient storage of value will move into BTC.. but there still will be utility value in the home, but perhaps some of that storage of value aspect would end flowing into bitcoin.. even though it could take 20, 50 or more years to reestablish how people are incentivized regarding value and how they think of value and the fact that there is so much debt based in the various current status quo systems will likely take a long time to sort out and to sort through too.. so no one is going to know exactly how these matters will play out in 2009.. even if they are doing napkin calculations and approximations.. .. so surely I would agree with your reluctance to give god status to such proclamations, but at the same time, there still is a lot of decent starting parameters contained therein without getting all huffy and puffy about it.,. in terms of suggesting that there was little to no value in Hals attempt to provide some kind of ballpark frame to the wealth gravitating into BTC matter.