I agree with you, because if there is a bull run then of course the price of ADA can reach $5, but I think maybe this year the bull run will not happen and only the market will recover, so I think this year the price of ADA might only reach its ATH price and haven't been able to reach $5.
Market recovery can also be a very good thing for all cryptocurrencies because when the next Bullrun could really come, then the market won't take much longer to achieve that, but if we look at the current conditions, then the market recovery will be as well it seems like it will last a long time.
current condition will repeat what actually happen at 2017 and 2018 , consolidation will take longer time till good news as trigger coming again. But so far China fud will not affective again in market since miners moved to other countries and decentralized will really happen. No one country controll the bitcoin hash rate and everything will be okay. Cardano wil be hue if smart contract feature released and ecosystem coul growth massively.