Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Does anyone know why GBTC FUD did not affect the price? I was waiting with a little cash but there was no drop in the price. 
my last time I bought it was around 29500 and it went up an hour later to around 34,000, it was perfect timing.
Maybe wait till 21st July, something's cooking up my last time I bought it was around 29500 and it went up an hour later to around 34,000, it was perfect timing.
Sure feels like something is cooking.
Actually, right now it feels a lot like the 2018 $6000 level just before the drop to $3000. I hope it is not going to repeat that but the lower highs with solid looking support is exactly what happened then.
I would not consider "exactly" to be a very reasonable way of attempting to make predictions about the future based on past patterns...
Sure, we could get another 30% to 50% drop from here - and that would be something like $15k to $20k depending on the severity of such a drop...
I will actually agree that $6k support was tested around 6 times between February 2018 and November 2018 when it finally broke.. and we got damned near a 50% drop out of that loss of $6k support that was a pretty BIG ASS surprise to a lot of us... and then the sub $6k lasted for a bit more than 4 months.. to cause additional concerns that the bottom might not be in and the shaking of weak hands.. so gosh.. maybe you are talking me into this?.. hahahahhaha
I am not going to get all glass half full and whiny about this.. and sure if the price goes down it is good to continue to attempt to be prepared (both financially and psychologically) for potentially extreme scenarios and sure, there could be some possible breaking (or at least appearing to be breaking) some of the currently credible BTC price prediction models in order to cause more senses of doom and gloom (of the masses), so sure a premature bear market (or even a greater, seeming to be out-of-this-world BTC price correction) could cause some more shakenings of the weak hands.....
So whether more "down before up" is a necessary condition or something that ends up happening should be something in which we are prepared for (both psychologically and financially) - but whether or not "down before up" ends up happening is something that I would be careful in putting too many eggs in such thinking of certainty basket.. so sure prepare to buy more BTC or just HODL through seems to be the better strategies, rather than selling - even though for sure, peeps are gonna peep... and cannot really stop peeps from buying high and selling low, especially if they have over-invested (and perhaps without hardly any plan except "getting rich quicker" than they have been able to in their previous years), and bear-whale manipulators might be able to sense that there remains more room to shake a few more of the whiny-ass cry babies who are placing more certainty towards down than it deserves (which sure could cause a self-fulfilling prophecy... until it doesn't).
A further 30-50% drop would mean we're in a bear market. Then we should get ready for another BTC winter. But 2013 scenario is far more likely imho as there was no blowoff top.
Regarding your first point.. perhaps "a further 30-50% drop would mean we're in a bear market." Surely, I am not prepared to concede that such a drop in and of itself is sufficient to proclaim a bear market in part based on the consideration of a 2013 like double top scenario playing out.. sure the way these BTC price dynamics play out can affect whether they are labelled as a bear market or a kind of faking out or extended consolidation within a bull market.. so personally, I am not conceding "bear market" based on a description of some superficial facts (such as potentially short-term changes in price) without more details regarding other things that might be going on.
By the way, if we more closely attempt to make a comparison to 2013, we get a pretty damned quickie price top of nearly 3x in a few months, and then a pretty damned quick correction of greater than 50% and even going down into around a 75% correction and a whole drawn out period of around 9 months (for the up and the down and the consolidation) or so for the first half to play out and then another few months for the second 2013 peak to play out (at least the playing out of the upside portion of that second peak). Several of us had been describing the two peaks in 2013 as if they were two dynamics, when likely they are better explained as within one kind of bull market exponential period of the 4-year fractal. Sometimes, we might not be able to recognize broader patterns or even appreciate their significants until either after they have already occurred or we have a few similar patters that largely fit into the mold and seem to better explain what may well be going on (even if the better explanation might not be definitive in terms of predicting what exactly will play out in the future - even if it might give some ideas for assigning odds).
This time we had about 3-9 months of a 5-6.5x upwards movement of BTC price but then the BTC price gets stuck in largely that 5-6.5x range with sure some gravitation up and then down for nearly 4 months before it corrects, and sure it comes down 56%, so far, yet we have ONLY been in the correction for 2 months, so far, and so sure it could correct some more (30%-50% or something) or the period of correction might soon be over, and even if there is some kind of pattern that does not exactly look like the 2013, so yeah, if there ends up being another top within 6-12 months of the mid April 2021, top, it may not matter so much how the fucking around in the middle looks, we might subsequently look at the whole period of fuckery (that we are now in the midst of) and decide that the whole thing was a bull market in spite some of the extremes or dragging out prices to play momentum, shaking of weak hands, shifting around of mining, trying to create a mining attack vector, purgening of shitcoin froth or whatever that may be currently happening and we are having difficulties seeing it while we are in the midst of it.
Yes, another scenario is that the BTC price does not recover for 3-4 years or maybe even longer.. but both you (serveria) and I likely consider those kinds of bear scenarios to be less likely, even though nothing is outside of the realm of possibilities, and sure there might even be a 20% chance of an early start to the bull market? There are surely a decent number of others (perhaps dumb fucktwats) who assign way higher likelihood that we are already in a bear market.. maybe even assigning 60% or more odds.. which I would consider that they do not know what the fuck is bitcoin, but at the same time, everyone does have rights to their own opinions and to make their allocations according to such opinions and part of the value proposition of any investment is to be able to appreciate certain aspects of what are low prices, even if a large number of others are not recognizing such relatively "low prices."
If a vast majority of the world's population already recognized the value of bitcoin, we would probably already have several million dollar bitcoin, and there are probably ONLY a small minority of the world's population who actually are attempt to tailor their own allocations in accordance with a more likely situation that we are still experiencing undervalued bitcoins at these here $30,700-ish prices.