If you say the BTC price is going down while its going up, then you are likely to correct sooner or later.. and if you say it in a kind of meek and ambiguous way, you are also likely to be right..

I suppose time will tell if we are in a bear cycle.. and really I don't buy your current desire to make a 3.5 year cycle claim.. seems to be convenient at this particular moment.

Regarding what you would do if you had conviction can be all over the place.. Of course, none of us should be so strongly convicted about anything that we do not make some kinds of hedges.  In 2014, I chose my hedge to be 10% / 90%, even though I gravitated into 13.5% / 86.5%... .but then after a while, bitcoin's price appreciation has changed my hedge to various locations such as 90% /10% and even variations between such as maybe 45%/55% - ish in the 2018 correction down to $3,124.. and of course, I am going to take some responsibility in terms of how I let that ride - even if sometimes in retrospect, I might consider that mistakes were made - yet each of us must balance whether we want to take any action and especially consider if taking action after already having a 56% price correction would be a great time to sell rather than to either buy or just HODL through it.

Peeps do not always do what seems to be the more practical of hedging approaches, and it is not just mindrust who makes those kinds of mistakes, even though he dow continue to serve as an ever giving decent example of problematic chance taking that ends up NOT working out.


Yeah right... .. lot's of sorcery wannabe peeps proclaim to have those.. but their status as sorcerer does not tend to last much longer than a few short-term price moves, at best.. even though there are quite a few of the wannabes that do come to these here parts after the price move fact and proclaim that they knew where this was going and that they had already tried to warn us... blah blah blah

Use those experts at your peril.