I think bitcoin will likely drop $20k than to pump to $40k, at least that's what I'm seeing now because if you look closely, the market is not anymore bullish and it's even struggling to reach $3k again. This is really the reason for an overprice market brought by the bull run, a correction would happen and we can't stop that, and since there's no bigger positive news that could hype the market, we can't expect a market rebound anytime soon.
It is correct that the market right now is looking way more bearish than bullish and that a reduction to 20k seems more likely than a pump to 40k but the current conditions are not going to last forever and I expect that at the end of the year the bullish conditions will comeback in a way similar to what we saw in 2017, obviously this is not a sure thing but to me the probabilities of a bull market at the end of the year seem to be high to me.