Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

Buy when everybody is pessimistic.

We might not be there yet but it's close.

How can we be close to pessimistic? Bitcoin was $100 a year ago. True despair-pessimism is a long WAY DOWN.

We've been through so many of these rally/corrections that we've learned to front-run the cycle, so it won't go that far down. It always seems different this time but in hindsight it's not.

or... the people who are front-running the "cycle" (which is an imaginary thing actually) are the only reason the price is as high as it is now, and this is just a dead cat bounce before it goes down again.

Dead cat bounce speculation is part of the cycle too. If Bitcoin was going to fail for any reason other than a superior technology rendering it obsolete, it would have failed by now. Anything else only delays without preventing the next ramp. Chinese and Russian hostility to crypto will have the effect of causing western policy makers to support it. The enemy of my enemy and all that.

Bitcoin doesn't need to "fail" for it to be grossly overpriced by speculators and for the speculation bubble to deflate. Refer to 2011. Think of it as a "supercycle".

The 2011 bubble saw an increase from 10 cents to 32 dollars! Proportionally speaking, the 18 month consolidation period before the next rally roughly equates to a three month consolidation period of about three to five months after a ramp from ~$150 to $1163. We are right on schedule.

What if the ramp was not from $150 to $1163, but from $15 to $1163, and there were 5 months in 2013 as an "intermission".