To be honest the only thing that can collapse the price IMO are the week hands, (non believers) stolen Bitcoin and whales redistributing/ facilitating future wealth growth, and I think a lot of coins @ the new order of magnetude have already been flushed.
The big question for me is "what really happened to the Gox coins." I'm working on the hypothesis that the coins were stolen along time ago and have already been absorbed by the market. If this is true, I can't see us dipping very deep and in fact think this is quite bullish medium term. On the other hand, if a thief really has 750,000 BTC, I could imagine considerable selling pressure for some time.
The first part of your theme seems possible........... but likely NOT complete b/c in my thinking it would take considerable time for 750k btc to be absorbed completely into the market. The second alternative seems even less possible b/c it seems very unlikely (though possible) that the stealing would have ONLY been by one thief.