I am just saying "great minds think alike".  I think he might be right... and have been saying it for over a year.  Never claimed to be the originator of the idea, but i did come to the conclusion fairly independently.  Never been a Dan Held acolyte, but I think he was early on with all the "supercycle" stuff.

I think Willy's take is a little more nuanced.  It does not completely throw out the 4 year cycle thing, but more sort of dampens it.  I personally think the halvings will still have some impact, but I believe the early roller coaster days are a thing of the past to *some* extent.  But there is even nuance there.  I could say insterad of 80-90% pullbacks we could see 50-60, and then less etc.  And instead of one big parabola and one big crash we could see gentler more frequent waves.  As well as the possibility of a really crazy upward push thrown in...  I think the quadrenial bitcoin cycle will become less and less of a "thing' as adoption increases.

My thesis in bullet points:

• Halving impact is reducing
• Magnitude of waves will reduce*
• Frequency of waves will increase
• *Possible one more really big UP wave (and possibly the mother of all of them)