Quote from: elliottflz65 on Today at 05:08:44 PM

Quote from: Dabs on Today at 04:57:34 PM

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on Today at 04:28:02 PM

Halving impact is reducing
Magnitude of waves will reduce*
Frequency of waves will increase
*Possible one more really big UP wave (and possibly the mother of all of them)

This year we will see 90% of the bitcoin supply mined already. Between now and 99%, which is in the year 2035 there will be a few halvings, and I think the mother of all happens somewhere in the middle. Past that, there's not much left to make any significant effect.

By the year 2048, we have 99.9% of supply. The next 100 years to the year 2140 (or as some predict maybe even earlier, but just a few years) is a 0.1% increase to 100% of all bitcoin supply.

But we also know price does not immediately follow these milestones, it may take some time for these numbers to sink in before people, retail, and institutional investors and even countries to buy in.

I think the biggest factor to consider is when we reach that 0.1% of Bitcoin because that is when we should see stability of the price. If you think about it the volatility of Bitcoin is because it has frequent injections of Bitcoin into the circulation of the market this is done by block rewards and then you have low levels of transactions (when you compare to other mainstream currencies) and Bitcoin is still new being just over 10 years old. When we reach 2048 that is when the block rewards do not inject as much Bitcoin into circulation, the currency is now established and is not new yet and the majority of the world will be invested in Bitcoin or using it which will allow us to reduce the amount of volatility we see today. We should then see more people using Bitcoin for its intended purpose as a currency instead of a reserve currency. Most products will hopefully we able to be bought with Bitcoin and Bitcoin would be challenging or already taken over as a mainstream currency. Hopefully by then centralized banks are no longer existing.

Several of those expectations are not bad, elliottflz65; however, I have some conceptual difficulties plugging in too many assumptions in regards to either the level of adoption or the magnitude of thew direction (outcomes of various battles that may play out)..

I am pretty sure that you are correct directionally in regards to less and less cyclical volatility, but that would not necessarily suggest that there would not be other kinds of volatility that is just not tied to previous cycles of volatility that have so far been programmed in, and really seems logical that such lessening of rewards takes away that specific kind of cyclical volatility..

And maybe it is not even too much of a stretch to presume that various kins of bitcoin adoption from individuals, institutions and governments is going to continue to increase at decently high levels and then cause bitcoin's market cap to go up and both cause less volatility but also make it much harder for anyone, even the then BIGboys, to manipulate bitcoin's price..

....but if we are presuming about magnitude, then still too many assumptions in there for me, even if some of the outlining of various UPpity scenarios are relatively fair presumptions in regards to likely ways that future bitcoin battles will play out in bitcoin's favor.....but still how much..

Is it really inevitable for Bitcoin to follow a kind of mathematical trajectory when we have human behavior in the mix, too.. including that there could be both set backs and advances that go on within short periods of time, but I am hardly convinced that the adding up of all the plusses and minuses of what could happen inevitably leads to some kind of realistic quantification of where the trajectory is going to be in terms of magnitude expectations, even if the odds seem quite great that you are directionally correct..

I would speculate that getting magnitude of bitcoin's adoption, advances and lessening of volatility correct would be more a matter than luck than something that could be predicted with any kind of high level of confidence.