DCA is probably better than buy the dip because DCA is more basic in terms of NOT having to attempt to figure out if there is a dip or not.
Sure buy the dip can supplement DCA, but I don't like it as much as a primary BTC accumulating strategy, and sure the more aggressive that a person is with the DCA, then maybe the less funds that would be available for buying the dip, but there should be practical ways to attempt to accomplish both.
Overall, I agree. If you factor the current point in the apparent cycle, however, I think putting stronger emphasis on buying the dip (definitely for the last few months, probably continuing for the next few months?) in addition to your methodical DCA schedule will be more rewarding. If I was accumulating now, I think I'd keep the pressure on BTFD under 100k.
Well you know there is some variation of an example that I usually like to give, which is someone who might have $6k that he can use to buy BTC right now, and he has $6k as cashflow that is coming in the next 6 months and he knows can be made available for bitcoin (without failing/refusing to account for his expenses or potential emergency preparations) (that's a total of $12k).
If the guy does not have any bitcoin, he probably should buy 1/3 right away (somewhere between $2k and $4k based on having $6k available now and projection of another $6k coming available), he sets up $2k to $4k to DCA over the next 6 months, and he set's $2k to $4k aside for buying on dips. That is the total of $6k currently available and $6k coming due so a total of $12k.
Yes, this $2k to $4k makes matters seem a bit confusing, even though having good ways to think through your own finances can be confusing, too.. until you put your preferences into a system. The fact that the hypothetical guy has no bitcoin means that he needs to get the fuck started and don't be diddle daddlying around, and there are three components of BTC accumulation to plug into in which he has to exercise discretion, even though I suggested some guidelines for framing the issues which kind of accounts for that he has no bitcoin, and accounts for how much that he has in his budget at this time ($6k) and over the next 6 months (another $6k).
The total factors that he should be attempting to account is not only the cashflow, but also his other investments (if any), view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and skills, time and abilities to learn, plan and tweak along the way.. and hopefully he has a minimum of a 4-year investment timeline to accumulate bitcoin but a longer time-frame would surely be better.
In other words, I doubt that we can resolve what the specific investment numbers should be and in each category for that hypothetical guy, even though we kind of presumed some of the parameters of his having $6k in hand and $6k coming in to his cashflow in the coming 6 months.
If the guy is investing along the way, and 3 months into his carrying out his BTC accumulation plan, he gets another $3k unexpectedly that comes in that is available for BTC investing (maybe $6k additional came in, but he authorized himself to use $3k for bitcoin), then I am of the view that presumptively he would divide that $3k into three parts too.. and accordingly, he would invest 1/3 right away, 1/3 plug into his DCA and 1/3 plug into his buy on dips. There can be a lot of these kinds of presumptions that are created about what to do, but the guy has to make various assessments for himself both in terms of how much of the free cash that he authorizes for bitcoin and how much that he specifically wants to allocate to each of the three categories of BTC accumulation (buy right away, DCA and buy on dips).
If anyone making any investment into bitcoin over-invests by not having value in other assets/currency or an emergency fund, then that would be pretty damned irresponsible investing in terms of potentially creating a system in which he is not prepared for an emergency and then he is forced to cash out some or all of his BTC at a time that is not of his own choosing, merely because he over-invested by failing/refusing to adequately prepare his finances and considering emergency funds that are likely more likely to be needed if they are not prepared for.