regulators are coming down hard on centralised exchanges with KYC/AML demands. Dex swaps cost an arm and a leg for every swap.... As I see it, either I have to pay enormous amounts of coin for trading OR I don't get to keep my data out of the hands of these "safe exchanges" that get hacked every other week and/or sell my info?
Is that about right? Anyone got advice for me?
Yes. I have advices.
Sell everything
(your whole stash of 0.32761 BTC) and get out of this racket while you still can.
Yes, you likely recognize that I attempt to use the 104-week and the 208-week moving averages to account for BTC's inevitable volatility, and there could be some other ways to account for that too beyond what appears to be your merely moving the 25 years up to 30 years.
Yes, I see that quite often. Have you got a simple website to pull those 104 and 208 WMA numbers?
In the "settings" and then "indicator parameters" you can set your "MA" moving averages to show up to 4 different lines simultaneously, I set my numbers with 26, 52, 104 and 208, and then you can look at the historical lines in terms of the BTC price, and of course, then lines will be different if you click on weekly or daily or even 30 minute candles, so in order to see the weekly MA, then you click on the weekly candles. I am sure that there are other websites that you can use to track various moving averages, such as this one:
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/. There is not much of a difference between the 200-week moving average and the 208-week moving average, except I am trying to account for the whole 4 years, which tends to show the 208-week moving average 1% or so lower than the 200-week moving average.
By the way, I do prefer to try to use those actual BTC performance numbers for valuation attempts because you could end up attempting to customize them more to what BTC is actually doing. For example, you might say that instead of using 25 years, you will use 50 years, but that still seems to fail to account for what bitcoin is actually doing... and of course, averaging the BTC price over 4 years or 2 years will give pretty conservative numbers, so the 4 year one is quite a bit lower and so could be used for bear markets and it may well be fair to use the 2 year one for bull markets, and surely if you end up NOT wanting to use two numbers, you could switch your settings to 3 years (156-week moving average).. I did a quick look and the 156-week moving average (3 years) is at about $17k currently, and surely the 156-week moving average would likely end up getting crossed to the downside more frequently but it could be a way to get out of having to attempt to figure out whether we are in a bear market or a bull market.. maybe I will have to switch over the the 156 week moving average - even though the 208-week moving average is kind of safe for all seasons, too.. because it takes into account both bear market and bull market by just representing the lower (more extreme) of the two.
When the 208 WMA is 25x your annual expenses, would surely be a good time to pull the FU lever I would think, as the spot price is probably a lot higher. Then you can simply cash out once a year without thinking about the spot price, as your WMA is always going up anyway.
I don't know Dabs. There's a bit of a problem in your thinking that any of us might feel some need to cash out once a year. Sure, there might be some desire in trying to be somewhat strategic regarding when you cash out, but even if you cash out monthly, quarterly or even every two weeks, there might be some utility in just getting the money as you need it.. but surely for accounting purposes once a year could be easier.. and surely, if you have some sense about where we might be in a cycle, you might try to be somewhat strategic in terms of when you cash out, also, but there may be some "I don't give a shit" also, especially if you happen to clearly be in safe space fuck you status, and part of the benefits of being in fuck you status would be not giving too many shits about some of the smaller concerns.. but of course no one is going to necessarily put more accounting burdens on himself, either.
By the way, maybe I remain somewhat bothered
(molested, no homo) by your statement about cashing out once a year because I have also seen you make statements in the past about cashing out and living on that cashed out amount for 5 years or 10 years or something like that, and I just find that kind of psychology (or even financial management) to be a wee bit problematic and even lacking in confidence in terms of figuring out how to manage your cash in such a way to largely keep yourself in bitcoin rather than so easily defaulting into getting into cash (or cash equivalents) for extended periods of time.