Your argument seems reasonable but consider the fact that the technology of devices is improving over time. Mining devices are more powerful, consume less electricity. Renewable energy will also play a big part in the evolution of miners' equipment. One thing I am sure of is that mining will stop if miners lose money so they will always find a way to fix it.
as long as there is still something generated from mining bitcoin and it has a value of course mining will still exist, even though it may no longer be profitable in large numbers.
it's also like the situation when bitcoin didn't have as high a value as it is today. Miners will only get a small value from the bitcoins they mine. but the orientation of the miner must be for the long term. and now it has been proven that they are still profitable.