Bitcoin price is now so much volatile. Bitcoin price is now $45.5k. In cryptocurrency no one can surely predict on them. But by doing some research about the market and the price increasing, decreasing chart some expert people can predict. And most of the time their prediction may come true. By seeing the past 2/3 months price chart we can say it easily that Bitcoin price will increase and it will hit $48k soon and can hit $50k+.
That's what's make bitcoin attractive, it's volatile and the market could let you down anytime. I think you have pretty conservative estimate, I think bitcoin will go up more than just that because if the patterns follow, we might see bitcoin go up to more than just 50k.