People could not connect the network right before validations and thence their identities were kicked out and then killed (I mean 'suspended -> zombied -> killed' cycle). So the growth started to decline of even go back. For now I think it is obvious that Idena need sharding in order to continue its growth.
I agree with majority of your post. The only thing is that network was growing exponential because mining reavenues were huge (we pumped 6x very fast). Its not the validation problems that stopped network from growing. It was price dump. Idena dumped 60% in 12 days. so if you were able to mine 500$ per month and people were buying invitations and yet no one was giving them away because everyone was spamming all friends and family memebers to join the network. Than price dumped, mining rewards too and people give up. At least with persuading all cousins, aunts and uncles at family dinners to join.
Yea. Its the biggest event since ... first epoch. Now we are ready for going wild.