By true value, I mean its value supported 100% by adoption, commerce, and demand for more. We must still be in the lower hundreds. Because despite thousands of new merchants, the price doesn't seem to have begun nudging upwards permanently.
For Bitcoin to find its 'true' value, a long slow deflationary (price) period is required, signified by a lack of new speculative capital coming into Bitcoin and holders of Bitcoin gradually cashing out for USD. In short, Bitcoin will never find its 'true value' so long as the market is infested with almost purely speculative capital. The volatility that Bitcoin has experienced for much of its short life renders it totally unsuitable for being used as a reliable means of exchange or store of wealth. The speculators need to be scared away and the best way for that to happen is for a prolonged low volatility stagnant bearish period, discouraging holding, encouraging Bitcoins to be actually spent, all while hundreds and hundreds of Businesses adopt Bitcoin as a payment option.
The true value of Bitcoin could grow to be massive, but for that to come to any long lasting fruition, I stress again that the speculators chasing fast bucks need to be shaken out.
This makes no sense. While one a micro level, Bitcoin is hampered for adoption by lack of applications making it easy to acquire, use, send, and locally remit, on a macro level it is hampered by being too small of a market cap.
In this way, it could be argued that MORE speculation is needed to drive up the market cap to make bitcoin more usable for large financial industries, including international trade.
Having a prolonged bear market will only lead to another HUGE bull market anyway. Its unavoidable. To get from $600 to $40k (Winklevoss' small bull cap prediction) means V O L A T I L I T Y. No way to avoid speculators.
What? Everyone is just going to be so afraid that bitcoin went down to $400 (or, OMG a $100 in your bearish fantasy) that they will avoid riding the train to $40k?
Ha. Its going to be become more volatile folks (not a % basis but on a dollar basis). Grab your seat belts folks.