Is there any halfway serious, i.e. insightful, fundamental analysis on Bitcoin and the crypto market?
Even a serious discussion here, but specifically taking into account MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT.
It seems like 90% of what you find online is either A) complacent TradFi or B) delusional libertarianism and Austrian fundamentalism.
The federal reserve owns a large majority share of US treasury bonds. Central bank supplied QE is credited with being responsible for more than 90% of US stock market trends since 2008.
Natural market mechanic analysis (macroeconomics) have not applied to markets for many years. Due to central banks expanding balance sheets to own a majority share of bonds and stocks (through investment bank QE).
Its difficult if not impossible to predict what governments or regulators response to cryptocurrencies will be. No one predicted el salvador recognizing bitcoin as legal tender. Its also impossible to predict what the response of hedge funds and whale investors will be. I don't know if anyone predicted or expected the recent high volume of bitcoin purchasing which led to its latest trend near 50k. Bitcoin is usually defined by 4 year boom and bust cycles. A departure from that would not fit its historical profile.
Long story short, I don't think you'll find any good macroeconomic analysis due to the uncertainties and unexpected trends involved. Which lie outside macroeconomic contexts.