Just because someone has a lot of tickets doesn't mean they will win (although it gives them a higher chance) and just because someone is new and has very little tickets doesn't mean that they will lose (although they have a small chance).
You're right that a large number of tickets does not guarantee a win. I do not doubt that there are whales with mln lottery tickets every round. However, such users have been unlucky lately because none of them have won anything in the lottery in the last few weeks.