Is there any halfway serious, i.e. insightful, fundamental analysis on Bitcoin and the crypto market?
Even a serious discussion here, but specifically taking into account MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT.
It seems like 90% of what you find online is either A) complacent TradFi or B) delusional libertarianism and Austrian fundamentalism.
Taking nothing for granted, what is a reasonable forecast for Bitcoin by the year's end?
Fundamental analysis does not work this way, I think you want to use the wrong tool for the job, fundamental analysis can tell you if the asset in which you are investing is strong or not and if there is reason to think it could go up in value during the next years.
However fundamental analysis is not going to tell you when this is going to happen or the magnitude of the movement, fundamental analysis allows you to get into an asset before it goes through a bullish phase but nothing more than that, if you want a prediction about the price at a particular point in time then you need to use technical analysis.