Oh?

What is a guy to do?

I still believe that the odds of the $28,600 bottom being in are quite a bit above 50%, so what else could any of us expect?

I am not trying to proclaim any kind of sorcery status, buy my previous assertion was that I was going to become quite confident that our $28,600 bottom was in once the BTC price rose above $46k (so maybe I had moved into the 63% confidence arena), and not only did we rise above $46k, we touched upon $53k, so largely that caused my confidence to go even higher, maybe even above 65 or 66% (what the fuck, I am attempting to ballpark, here, for sure). 

So surely since our September 6th touching upon $53k we have been in correction and consolidation mode, so getting some DOWNity momentum.. which also likely causes confidence of the $28,600 bottom being in to go down.. but how far down are we going to come in order to attempt to stay reasonable in respect to the BTC price forces that are out there - including the extent to which there could be some macro-liquidity event that causes our $28,600 bottom to end up getting broken?  Personally, I am still considering greater than 50% odds that the $28,600 bottom from mid-April is NOT going to be touched... Can I attempt to throw out some kind of larger number that is somewhere between 50% and 65% and perhaps lower than 60% could be presumed at this point?
 You know that I hate getting into specifically high numbers in the first place, but we still have around $12k cushion between our current prices (as I type this post) and the June and July $28,600 bottom. so what to do?  what to do?  besides wait it out and cry a wee bit?

For sure, it is not easy to have a whole hell of a lot of confidence regarding where the bottom of a correction cycle might be while it seems that we are in the midst of it, including seeming to have some decent momentum and some pretty damned dire macro-economic factors that could contribute to some seemingly outrageous BTC price performance (to the DOWNity) in the short term.  Where's the reversal (if any?) and how to catch a falling knife, if that would even be a practical recommendation of something to attempt? 

I am not proclaiming to have any answers beyond just trying to employ systems that have already been successful in terms of buying dip, HODL and figuring out how much there might be any practicality in trying to watch or just step away for a while (if that might be where we are at, currently.)


When you want a wee bit of fiction, here you have it.

Well said Bawb.