Why does your investment into bitcoin have to play out so extreme?  I understand satoshi's statement about bitcoin being a binary.. but still.. there seems to be a need for some prudence in the approach that any of us decides to take in terms of how to invest into bitcoin.. 


I agree with you that higher levels of correction become more feasible in the event that the BTC price runs up exponentially - and become less feasible if the BTC price does not run up exponentially.

I presume that there are pretty decent odds that BTC prices are going to both run up exponentially and correct exponentially for the reasons that I had already stated in regards to both being in a war and wealth redistributions that remain beyond the expectations of the vast majority of folks who do not get bitcoin.  Sure it is not guaranteed, but from my perspective the odds seem quite strong... and by the way my own investment thesis in bitcoin does not rely at all upon such battles and exponential price rises taking place.


I have commented on this in some of my other posts, and I am not sure if I had mentioned the matter in any of my exchanges with you, gallianooo, but from my perspective it is a big so fucking what whether plan B proclaims that his model would be broken if BTC prices are not sustained within a certain range or below a certain point or reach a certain price point at a certain time...   From my perspective, even Plan B seems to be putting too many expectations that his model will be broken upon certain conditions.

Maybe in some sense i am personally getting irritated by placement of predictive values upon descriptive correlations... and in that regard, I consider that extended deviance from the models expectations would not necessarily break the model but just cause a possible need to shift the axis of the descriptive versus predictive aspects of the model.   

Maybe another source of some of the frustration comes from an expectation that if PlanB's model ends up NOT being correct as written, then that implies doom and gloom for bitcoin, when it does not.  The BTC price may well go way the hell outside of expected parameters of PlanB's model and then either return to the mean or return to some shifted down version of the mean, and that hardly would say anything about bitcoin's fundamentals beyond saying that PlanB needs to shift his curve a weee bit in order to account for what bitcoin actually did rather than what bitcoin was expected to have done in that timeframe.


Fair enough.. we will see how the BTC price plays out in the next 24 hours^tm.