In fact, the more people there are that believe the S2F model definitely will happen, the more that whale traders will have an incentive to NOT make it happen and do the opposite, fucking over both leveraged longs and shorts, and trying to shake out more weak-handed hodlers.
Actually, I largely agree with the total concepts of your post (including the portions that I snipped out), and I also recognize that you have some tendencies to ascribe "manipulation" to seemingly normal market tendencies and behaviors - even though you have gotten off of so much reliance on those angles in recent times. Surely, I am also NOT trying to be combative; just pointing out some angles that I have been seeing in the substantive tendencies of your posts.
I do consider that you have highlighted a relatively interesting phenomena/dynamic in which powers that be are faced with some differing dynamics when they aim their targets at bitcoin manipulation based on both the immaturity of the bitcoin product and also aspects of bitcoin's fundamentals that some traditional market manipulators are striving to grapple with (and perhaps some of them are learning new techniques along the way that might work in bitcoin better than those same techniques would work in traditional markets/asset classes).
So surely the $million question remains whether bitcoin will still end up springing back to something like the S2F model in spite of strenuous efforts (and a lot of resources) striving to invalidate the S2F model. I am surely all in agreement with you in terms of identifying that there are some likely high stakes traditional manipulators that feel that they have quite a bit to lose based on bitcoin success and ongoing success so they are willing to NOT pull any punches when dealing with bitcoin manipulation and to throw a lot of resources at such "problems," yet in spite of such spent efforts, what's going to happen? Will bitcoin revert to something like S2F .. or perhaps S@F gets shifted downwardly on its curve projections a wee bit, but still does not invalidate S2F - beyond appearing that it is invalidated in the short term or even for one or two 4-year cycles and then at some point when we look back at the whole matter instead of doing something like what S2F had projected, we end up having a 1/3 performance level that resembles S2F, but really does not invalidate it beyond the need to shift the price projection curve downward by the necessary amount.