I think I get the picture your trying to paint and it's got me wondering if; A hodler can ever be an idiot. That's if I'm to follow you concept of what actually happens online the market as, a hodler will definitely wait patiently until he or she gets ROI. So to the hodler, it doesn't matter when you invest or at what price you did invest. All that matters is, of you were able to  get ROI in the end and how weighty it is then, your satisfied at tha level and won't consider yourself an idiot.
For those that go for a short term investment, its a whole different story. It's either you go smart or you could be sorry because, the proximity for anything in the market is of a whole different level.