Part of me is fucking concerned if I’m honest.
My gut is telling me S2F falls apart soon. In shambles and an afterthought by March 2022.
Hope I'm wrong, but I think we should expect a slower rise than some are anticipating.
seconded.
But by all means, i don't follow the "fool of the bulls" argument from Torque. Bulls know how capitulation looks like, wait for it then and get in (around the infamous "mindrust point").
Even though I can recognize some value in a buying a dip approach, many of us need to be careful with any such approach that is going to hold large quantities of our fiat waiting for dips that do not end up happening.
Of course, we are going to feel smart as fuck if we end up buying upon a mindrust kind of moment.. but those kinds of moments are definitely difficult to identify and/or prepare for.
I am not really writing my response for you OOM, but instead about your seemingly misleading comment in regards to your rendition of you practices.
Let's say that anyone who has already accumulated a decent bitcoin stash, but that same person is trying to time some of the BIGGER BTC price swings in order to get some additional profits from what is a somewhat inevitability in bitcoin, which is decently high volatility. So, a kind of presumption is that person is already pretty well prepared for UP, they just want to supplement their BTC stash with some additional BTC for the dips. My suggestion would still be to figure out some kind of formula that attempts to anticipate the most extreme that we might expect any dip to be able to go, and to stagger buys at various points on the way down, and surely still hopefully being able to take advantage of the most extreme aspects of the extremes.
One possible measurement would be to use weekly moving averages, and I consider the 208-week moving average (currently $16,000-ish) to be the now current measure of extremes for bear markets and the 104-week moving average (currently $24,000-ish) to be the now current measure of extremes for bull markets. Accordingly, staggered buy (buy on dip) orders could be set to go down that far..
However, i'd need a new car within the next two years, solar power my home and pay off approx. $12k to the government to free myself from a payback plan from the government. Only the latter is really important, because otherwise i'd have to pay it off for the next 15 years for about double as much (mainly interest).
I can easily hodl the majority of my/the family stash for one or two decades.
You are not going to get any arguments from me in regards to attempting to anticipate and prioritize your expenses.
Y'all remember that get-rich-quick-vs.-not-get poor-slowly quote, right?
For sure.. relatively speaking having bitcoin in your portfolio (whether apportioned appropriately or not) will likely help with the not getting poor aspect.. but there still could be some getting rich more quickly than expected aspect, too.
Also, I remember that you had started out your post by agreeing that S2F is potentially "falling apart soon," but you hardly made any arguments or assertion to support such likely to be baloney "agreement.".. but of course, you (and others) can believe what you want in terms of what are currently the most credible of the BTC prediction models or even to spin
(or should it be "roll"?) your own
likely to be wrong model, too.